Churn & LTV Prediction: Spot Players Before They Leave
Every day, Smartico scores each depositing player on the risk of not depositing in the next 7, 14 or 30 days, and projects their net deposits for the next 15, 30 and 60 days. When the risk goes up, a retention journey can start the same day.
A Risk Rank Your Team Can Act On
Every day the model gives each depositing player a churn score from 0 to 1 and puts them in a rank. The rank tells your team who needs attention now.
- Your definition of churn: no deposit for 7, 14 or 30 days. Smartico can also train the model on another definition, such as no deposits and no play.
- Back from the edge: when a Churned or Critical player deposits again, the rank changes to Invalidated, so nobody acts on old data before the next scoring.
- Proof in your reports: for each rank, see how many players really churned, and how players move between ranks over time.
| Rank | Score | What to do |
|---|---|---|
| Low | 0 – 0.4 | No action needed |
| Medium | 0.4 – 0.6 | No action needed |
| High | 0.6 – 0.85 | Action recommended |
| Critical | 0.85 – 1 | Act now |
| Churned | — | No deposit in your chosen period |
| Invalidated | — | Active again: new rank at the next scoring |
LTV Prediction: What Each Player Will Be Worth
LTV prediction projects each player's net deposits (deposits minus withdrawals) for the next 15, 30 and 60 days. It gives a range, not a single number: the most likely value between a lower and an upper bound.
- Honest ranges: the bounds are set so that about 8 in 10 players land inside them.
- From the first days: a first projection arrives within a day of the first deposit. For targeting, wait until the player has three days of activity.
- Spend where it pays: give players with low expected growth a reason to stay, and keep the bigger offers for players with high expected value.
- On the player profile: your team sees the projection and its range next to the churn rank.
Put the Prediction to Work
The churn rank and the LTV projection are player properties, and every rank change sends an event. Use them anywhere you build campaigns.
Start retention on time
The event churn prediction updated fires when a player changes rank. Start a journey the moment a player enters High or Critical.
Stop when the risk drops
Use the same event to end heavy messaging once a player is back to Low or Medium.
Give a reason to come back
Show a mini-game, mission or tournament only to the players at high risk.
Size the offer by value
Combine the churn rank with predicted LTV, so the bigger offers go to the players who are worth more.
Check the Model Yourself
Three reports in the back office show how the model performs on your own players.
- 1Churn risk ranksHow many players are in each rank today, and how many players in each rank really churned.
- 2Users vs. RanksHow players move between ranks over the period you pick.
- 3Actual churnThe real churn of new depositors and of players who came back.
Setup and every option: the Churn & LTV prediction guide on help.smartico.ai.
